On June 30, global stock markets wrapped up their strongest quarter in six years. The S&P 500 gained 14% over the period, the Nasdaq nearly 20%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged 37%. Brent crude, which topped $110 a barrel in the spring, was trading between $71 and $73 on July 1 (close to its pre-war level) and has continued to decline, driven in particular by oversupply from Iran and Russia. On paper, global investors appear to have decided that the crisis is over.
In Morocco, however, the picture is less clear-cut. The MASI, the benchmark index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange, has been stagnant for weeks, down just 0.3% over the past year, and remains below its pre-war peak. Its resilience is largely concentrated in a single sector: mining, led by one stock: Managem. The company has become the exchange’s largest by market capitalization and now accounts for more than 9% of the index. The group, chaired by Imad Toumi, has benefited primarily from soaring gold and silver prices, as investors continue to flock to safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
“The MASI no longer truly reflects the Moroccan economy; it mainly reflects Managem. The stock now accounts for more than 9% of the index on its own, driven both by the global rush for gold, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, and by the growing output of its new mines. Remove that single stock, and the index would have been in the red since the start of the year. This isn’t a sign of the Moroccan market’s resilience in the face of the crisis; it’s a magnifying effect on a handful of stocks” a local analyst explained to TelQuel.
A deceptive decovery
On one hand, there is a genuine easing of tensions. On the other, a fragile appearance of calm. The question now dividing analysts is whether investor caution has truly subsided with the fall in oil prices, and whether the ceasefire agreement signed in mid-June between Washington and Tehran offers any real prospect of a return to normal.
“When the market adapts to uncertainty, everyone sells their most profitable assets and sits on their cash, waiting to see how the situation unfolds before reinvesting”
The figures offer no definitive answer, but they do provide some clues. Coface, the global credit insurer, has doubled its forecast for the increase in business insolvencies by 2026, raising it from 3% in January to 6%. The insurer acknowledges that it is difficult to determine exactly how much of the first-quarter data can be attributed to the conflict, since the crisis only began in late March. However, the earliest signs of deterioration have appeared in transportation and construction, two sectors directly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The figures, however, reveal little about the mindset of business leaders. Mahmoud El Hassouni, professor and researcher at SUP MTI Rabat and a geologistics expert, believes the shift runs deeper than simple caution: “When markets begin to adapt to uncertainty rather than trying to resolve it, we are no longer following classical economic logic; we’re almost playing roulette” he says. “Everyone is selling their most profitable assets and sitting on their cash, waiting to see how the situation unfolds before reinvesting” adds the specialist.
For Moroccan companies dependent on international markets, that translates into postponed investments, delayed hiring, and capital left sitting in bank accounts instead of being committed to projects whose viability could be jeopardized if the truce collapses.
An initial cost
The economic impact may already be taking shape. By the end of April, foreign investors had injected nearly 12 billion dirhams into Morocco, a 10.1% decline year-on-year, according to the Foreign Exchange Office. Data for May and June, which have yet to be released, will show whether the slowdown was only temporary.
What has changed is not only the price of oil. In the past, when the price per barrel rose, businesses absorbed or passed on the additional cost and waited for conditions to stabilize. Today, the challenge is different: goods may not arrive at all, or their prices may change overnight. “If you control the flow of goods , you automatically control the economy, and if you control the economy, you control politics. That wasn’t so obvious before. Now we know: power may have shifted to the other side” sums up Mahmoud El Hassouni.
Even when it comes to prices alone, the adjustment remains uneven. Price increases are passed on almost immediately, while price declines take much longer to reach consumers. “When oil prices rise, prices follow immediately. When they fall, the adjustment takes longer” Mahmoud El Hassouni observes. Companies often use the respite to rebuild their profit margins before lowering prices. As a result, Moroccan consumers continue to bear the extra cost of the crisis long after tensions have eased.
Three obstacles
The question remains: why? Three factors continue to fuel this caution, although it is difficult to determine which carries the greatest weight.
The first is the ceasefire agreement itself, whose terms remain ambiguous. Signed remotely in mid-June between Washington and Tehran, the agreement exists, according to Mahmoud El Hassouni, in both Persian and English versions, with neither taking precedence over the other. “Creating ambiguity is easy. You can always claim that the text means one thing domestically and something different to the other side” he explains. The status of the Strait of Hormuz and the question of imposing transit fees, an option Iran is considering but Western countries oppose, remain unresolved. A first round of talks between Iran and Oman on the governance of the strait took place this week without producing an agreement.
The second factor is the unpredictability of the Trump administration, which could reverse course on its commitments overnight. Even analysts who closely follow the region are reluctant to predict that the truce will hold.
The third, and more measurable, factor is that the cost of risk has not fallen at the same pace as oil prices. Although crude has become cheaper, shipping cargo through the Strait of Hormuz remains both more expensive and more uncertain than it was before the conflict. At the height of the crisis, according to industry professionals, war-risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the strait increased tenfold or even twentyfold, depending on the type of ship and cargo. On the ground, the recovery remains slow. On June 24, one week after the ceasefire agreement was signed, only around 70 vessels passed through the strait, well below pre-crisis traffic levels.
Mahmoud El Hassouni believes the truce could last six months “in the best-case scenario.” Coface does not venture a timeline, but shares the same cautious outlook. The insurer continues to warn that it is too early to declare the crisis over and does not rule out a renewed escalation. For companies, both in Morocco and abroad, the question is no longer when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen permanently. It is how long they can afford to wait.
Written in French by Safae Hadri, edited in English by Amina Kadiri
