Will it open, won’t it open? For several weeks now, the Strait of Hormuz has been opening and closing at the whim of Tehran’s moods and Washington’s ultimatums. On April 17, Iran announced its reopening. On the 18th, it called it off. The markets surged, then crashed. And Royal Air Maroc, like every airline in the world, is counting its liters of jet fuel.
Since the start of the conflict, aviation fuel has jumped by more than 130%. In Europe, the ton that was trading around 830 dollars at the end of February now exceeds 1,700 dollars. Six weeks were enough to double prices — unprecedented in the history of commercial aviation.
In the airline industry, kerosene is not just another expense. It structurally represents nearly 30% of an airline’s operating costs. When its price doubles, the entire business model shakes. « The situation has had a considerable impact on operating costs, particularly due to the significant rise in oil prices, » a source close to RAM tells TelQuel. With no visibility on how the crisis will end.
Doha and Dubai, phantom routes
“The Casablanca-Doha and Casablanca-Dubai flights remain suspended due to security concerns in the region”
On top of this comes a commercial blow. Travelers have abandoned the Gulf, and RAM has had to take the consequences. Two direct routes from Casablanca are currently suspended: Casablanca-Doha, a daily flight, and Casablanca-Dubai, with three weekly frequencies. « These flights are still suspended due to weak demand caused by travelers’ concerns about security in the region, » our source specifies.
These two destinations, however, are no small matter. Doha and Dubai are two of the busiest aviation hubs in the world, particularly for travel to Asia. Their suspension reduces Casablanca’s connectivity to markets that RAM has been trying to develop for years.
Check, please!
RAM is not alone in the turmoil. All over the world, the question is the same: who is going to pick up the tab? The airlines were the first to respond. Air France has doubled its fuel surcharge on long-haul flights, raising it to 100 euros per round-trip ticket, with up to 319 euros on certain transatlantic flights. British Airways is charging a systematic surcharge, Cathay Pacific has raised its surcharges by 34%, and Air India is going as high as 280 dollars in additional charges to North America. Some twenty airlines worldwide have already adjusted their fares upward.
If the blockade of Hormuz drags on, RAM passengers will be forced to pay their share. As everywhere else
For RAM, the question arises with the same urgency. The carrier has not yet announced a surcharge. But our source is explicit: « This probability remains a possibility, particularly for long-haul flights, which consume large quantities of fuel. Airlines closely monitor the evolution of oil prices over an extended period: if the upward trend is confirmed, it could be passed on to ticket prices in order to mitigate the impact of rising fuel costs. » Translation: if the blockade of Hormuz drags on, RAM passengers will be forced to pay their share. As everywhere else.
The big trim
“The situation is a supply problem more serious than anything we have experienced so far”
Route closures and surcharges are only the visible part. Behind the scenes, the entire industry is restructuring. In Germany, Lufthansa has urgently shut down its regional subsidiary CityLine and permanently withdrawn 27 aircraft deemed too fuel-hungry. Swedish carrier SAS canceled more than 1,000 flights in April. KLM cut 160 flights in May. Everywhere, airlines are making the same trade-offs: closing what costs too much, concentrating resources on profitable routes, and waiting.
The European Commission has announced an emergency plan for this week: bulk purchases of kerosene on a continental scale, modeled on the 2022 gas plan, the temporary suspension of the aviation carbon market, and the establishment of dedicated strategic reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is more direct: there may be only six weeks of autonomy left in Europe if the strait does not reopen on a lasting basis. For Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the situation is « a supply problem more serious than anything we have experienced so far. »
Morocco, for its part, is facing the crisis without any refining capacity. Since the court-ordered liquidation of Samir, the Kingdom has been entirely sourcing its refined products on international markets, with a heavy dependence on the European market, which is itself under strain. Before Parliament on April 13, Energy Transition Minister Leila Benali delivered figures that spoke volumes: Morocco has 36,000 tons of aviation kerosene, equivalent to 34 days of consumption. Far from the 60 days required by law, and even further from the 80 days that the country’s storage capacities would actually allow.
The busy-season test
For RAM, the real test has not yet begun. The busy season is approaching, and with it, the year’s biggest volumes: Moroccans living abroad, European tourists, transatlantic connections. It is in the coming weeks that the airline’s ability to absorb the shock or pass it on will be decided. Everything will depend on the length of the conflict, the course of negotiations, and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz.
But beyond the short term, the crisis reveals a vulnerability that RAM shares with the Moroccan economy as a whole: the absence of national refining capacity. Since the closure of Samir nearly 11 years ago, the Kingdom has been directly importing already-refined products, buying at the daily price on international markets.
Refining locally, even from imported crude, would make it possible to buy raw material more cheaply than the finished product and to reduce dependence on European traders. Before its shutdown, Samir covered up to 80% of national needs in jet fuel. A capacity which, in the current context, could have made the difference.
Written in French by Safae Hadri, edited in English by Eric Nielson
