One announcement follows another, consortiums are set up, and the sums involved are staggering: 319 billion dirhams worth of green hydrogen projects have already been committed to the « Morocco Offer. »  The Kingdom is gradually establishing itself as a strategic battleground for global industrial, financial and energy players.

Europe’s priority is the immediate substitution of fossil fuels.  Whereas Morocco has chosen a singular path: charting a hybrid course, creating a favorable framework, identifying land, developing shared infrastructures, and leaving the financial risk to private investors.  » The Moroccan approach is pragmatic and differentiated », says Badr Ikken, Associate Director of Gi2 and Chairman of CGEM’s Morocco-Germany Business Council.

Behind the media hype surrounding green hydrogen and its derivatives lies a veritable race for control of the value chain. By 2030, it will no longer be just a matter of selling kilowatts, but of controlling entire value chains – and deciding who will capture the… pic.twitter.com/iFanfIbigL-

TelQuel (@TelQuelOfficiel) October 9, 2025

The Moroccan bet

Unlike the still uncertain technological bets on kerosene or synthetic diesel, the Kingdom is betting first on green ammonia, it explains. A choice that is far from trivial: here, the stakes go beyond energy to reshape an entire industry.

Today, grey ammonia is imported at around $500 a ton. According to the latest projections, green ammonia would trade at around $600. The difference is small, substitution becomes credible, and the equation attracts investors. The comparison with kerosene is edifying: over $2,000 a ton for synthetic, versus $700 for its fossil equivalent, » points out Ikken.

Green ammonia therefore appears to be the most bankable bet. For banks, investment funds and manufacturers, it’s a segment capable of absorbing billions while guaranteeing immediate outlets, both for domestic use – through OCP, the country’s leading consumer – and for export to Europe and Asia.

An industry under construction

Behind the megawatts and the financial projections, a whole new industrial ecosystem is taking shape. Each gigawatt of hydrogen or green ammonia capacity represents an investment of 2 to 2.5 billion dollars, and could lead to the creation of 35,000 to 40,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs. By 2040, if Morocco reaches its target of 200 GW, more than 4 million jobs could be generated and $60 billion integrated locally, » explains the expert.

The impact is not limited to the energy sector: the entire industrial fabric would be boosted. For Morocco, the challenge is not just to produce clean energy, but to capture a significant share of this value by localizing the manufacture of components, developing infrastructures and integrating its own manufacturers into the chain.

« Success will depend on Morocco’s ability to expand the size of the market and select as many projects as possible under the Morocco Offer, » explains Ikken. In other words, the larger the volumes, the more profitable it will be for OEMs and manufacturers to establish themselves locally.

Moroccan champions enter the fray

According to Ikken, several Moroccan groups are positioning themselves to occupy strategic links. OCP, of course, is in the front line: by substituting imported gray ammonia with local production, the phosphate giant is securing its supply while positioning itself as a future exporter. Nareva is working on the local production of electrolyzers, Maghreb Steel and Sonasid are targeting the steel needed for infrastructure, while Energy Transfo, Fabrilec and Beltransfo are targeting electrical transformers.

Alongside them, players such as Ingelec, Nexans, Coficab and Centrelec are making their mark in electrical equipment, while Wilo and Longofer are eyeing auxiliary components. The movement is underway: the challenge now is to determine how much of the value will remain in Morocco, and how much will be captured by foreign partners.

Morocco is now one of the few countries to attract genuine industrial projects for hydrogen and green ammonia. Eight have been identified, led by seven international consortia: OCP and Engie; CIP, AP Moller Capital and TotalEnergies for the Chbika project in Guelmim; Acwa Power; Nareva; Ortus, Acciona and Nordex; Moeve (formerly Cepsa) and Taqa; and China Three Gorges and United Energy Group. By 2030, this could represent over 30 GW of installed capacity and almost 100 billion euros of investment, according to Ikken.

The battle of the consortia

But behind all the excitement, competition is fierce. On the one hand, foreign giants want to impose their technologies and supply chains. On the other, Rabat is pushing for local integration.

Rabat is playing it tight: open up too much, and Morocco risks becoming a mere energy hub; restrict too much, and investors may prefer markets deemed faster or more flexible. « The key is to create critical masses that justify the local establishment of factories and suppliers, » stresses Ikken. In other words, if the Kingdom succeeds in aggregating enough projects within a hub logic, it will be able to impose its conditions and retain a substantial share of the added value.

In this battle, national players have a decisive role to play. OCP offers an assured and credible outlet; Nareva consolidates its position. For Moroccan industry, green ammonia is not just a promise of decarbonization, but an opportunity to anchor billions in global investment in the local production fabric.

Written in French by Safae Hadri; Edited in English by AngloMedia Group.