Winter is finally coming. Morocco, which is experiencing its seventh successive year of drought, has been welcoming its first heavy rainfall in 2025 since March 6 giving renewed hope to farmers who are among the first to be affected by water shortages.
« The arrival of precipitation in general, and rain in particular, is always welcome, especially after a winter which is drawing to a close and during which rainfall has been scarce« , said Mohamed Bazza, an international expert in water resources, contacted by TelQuel. « Everyone was holding their breath for fear that this campaign would be a repeat of previous ones« , he stresses.
Morocco’s entire national territory is affected, from north to south, including the center and east, according to the General Directorate of Meteorology (DGM). Fouad Amraoui, hydrogeologist and professor at Hassan II University in Casablanca, points out that « the importance of this rainfall episode is linked firstly to its extent, since it affects all the water basins, and secondly to its magnitude, which amounts to tens of millimeters of rain per day, and which lasts over time« .
These rains « reinforce our reserves in the dams, or recharge our groundwater, which is suffering from excessive exploitation« , he adds.
Thanks Jana
Last year, the first heavy rains came a little later, between March 26 and April 1, 2024. They accompanied Storm Nelson which mainly affected Western Europe before arriving in Morocco. Its passage was also synonymous with powerful gusts of wind which caused some material damage.
This time, it’s the Jana low-pressure system that’s causing the current precipitation. And it’s not over yet. According to the DGM, the weather disturbances are set to continue until at least the end of the week.
A « succession of depressions will persist in the country, with precipitation expected over the Rif, the Middle and High Atlas, as well as the northern Atlantic plains« , Houcine Youaabed, head of the communications department, told MAP. Snowfall is also forecast over the higher elevations above 1,600 meters. And further « moderate to heavy » precipitation is expected in several regions of the kingdom, including Tangier, the Rif and the Atlantic plains, he added.
According to Amraoui, there is nothing exceptional about this timing. « If we refer to the rainfall chronicles of recent decades in Morocco, we normally have a bimodal distribution, with a first peak around the months of December and January, and a second peak around the months of March and April« , he explains. He adds that our cereal crops and their yields are based on this « pattern« .
« A great relief »
Although the real impact of these rains will only be measurable in the coming weeks, they should, in principle, improve the agricultural season. Arable land, hitherto too dry, has already begun to revive.
Rachid Benali, President of the Moroccan Confederation of Agriculture and Rural Development (Comader), is optimistic. For him, all farmers and all crops will benefit « without exception« . « Admittedly, some crops will benefit less, such as autumn cereals, while other crops, which are still holding their own, will benefit more« , he said, « but these rains are beneficial in any case« . « Water is the source of life for everything: human beings, animals, plants and so on. So it’s a great relief« , he confides.
Which crops can still benefit – fully or partially – from this rainfall? Firstly, winter cereals — including wheat, barley and oats — which represent an essential part of Moroccan agricultural harvest. At this time of year, these crops are in the grain-filling phase in the Tadla, Chaouia, Al Haouz and Saïss regions. Good soil moisture can therefore significantly improve yields. On the other hand, in the so-called early zones, where flowering is already complete and ripening advanced, such as Gharb and Doukkala, the effect should be more limited.
Fouad Amraoui believes that only cereal crops in regions that have suffered the least from the drought will benefit. However, given the extent of the current rains and those potentially expected in the coming weeks, he expects cereal production to improve« significantly » on last year’s levels, by up to « 45 million quintals« .
In 2024, Morocco produced around 31.2 million quintals of cereals, down 43 percent on the previous year. This decline was mainly attributed to persistent drought, which led to a reduction in planted areas and lower yields. The Kingdom had to increase its cereal imports to meet domestic needs.
Green pastures?
Another piece of good news is that legumes, which are often grown as a complement to cereals, should benefit from the late rainfall, especially if they have not yet reached maturity. Forage crops are also concerned, as the rains replenish natural pastures and enable livestock farmers to reduce their dependence on expensive cattle feed. Impacted by the royal call to refrain from making the Eid sacrifice this year, breeders will at least « have good pasture for their sheep. They won’t suffer by spending more on subsidized barley« , said Benali of Comader.
Underground water reserves are also crucial for fruit trees. The supply of water not only improves the growth of developing fruit, but also better prepares them for flowering and production the following year. Next in line are seasonal vegetable crops, including tomatoes, potatoes, onions, carrots, etc., and aromatic and medicinal plants.
Keeping your feet on the ground
This rainfall « is of course benefiting the crops that have been planted and have held up so far, but in many regions, planting has not taken place, precisely because of the lack of rain at the right time », said Mohamed Bazza. For this expert in water resources, the contribution of this rain to filling dams remains limited even if levels « could increase with the melting of snow and if rainfall continues as forecast », he stresses. The same applies to groundwater: Mohamed Bazza estimates that the contribution will be « even more limited, except in regions that have received large amounts of precipitation or significant surface runoff« .
However, according to an initial report released by the Ministry of Equipment and Water, more than 180 million m3 of water flowed into the national dams between March 6 and 10. The average filling level on March 11 was 29.56 percent, with a total of over 4978 million m3, compared with around 4197 million m3 a year earlier.
The improvement is already palpable. Professor Fouad Amraoui believes that these « strong inflows » of water should « protect us, over a large part of the country, from drinking water supply worries, and guarantee us deliveries of irrigation water in certain agricultural perimeters where the water situation is correct« .
« While the rain that has fallen so far is very useful, it is not enough »
The hydrogeologist even expects that by the end of the week the average filling rate will reach, or even exceed 30 percent, albeit with strong regional disparities. « The total volume stored will exceed 5 billion m3. But two water basins are still suffering from very low filling rates, namely the Oum Er Rbia basin with the two large Al Massira and Bin El Ouidane dams, and the Souss-Massa basin with the Abdelmoumen and Aoulouz dams« , he said. And despite the latest rains, dam reserves remain well below their optimum levels. We’ll need several rainy spells of the same magnitude to hope for a real improvement in the country’s water situation. « Let’s hope for more of the same in the days and months ahead. Although what has fallen so far is very useful, it’s not enough« , agrees Mohamed Bazza. Of course, this contribution is a « blessing for which we must thank God » but we must, he reminds us, « keep our feet on the ground and remain vigilant« .
No way out of the crisis
Comader is equally vigilant. For its president, we can’t yet speak of a good or bad agricultural year. « It’s not a spell of rain that’s going to reassure us. It’s like asking someone who has eaten too much today not to eat again for the next 15 days« , he stresses. The land needs a regular supply of water to remain fertile and arable, and this is not yet the case.We’re not out of the crisis yet« , says Mohamed Bazza.
He also advises those in charge to pay attention to the Sebou basin, which « is running out of steam in the face of the huge demand for water it is facing ». According to the Ministry of Public Works, this basin, which extends over 40,000 km2 and some 316 territorial communes, crosses 18 provinces and prefectures, nine of them entirely, namely Meknès, El Hajeb, Fès, Moulay Yaâcoub, Sefrou, Taounate, Sidi Slimane, Sidi Kacem and Kénitra. The basin also covers three regions: Fès-Meknès, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima. It is one of Morocco’s most important basins, supplying around 30 percent of the country’s surface water resources and around 20 percent of its groundwater. It supplies several strategic dams, including the Al Wahda dam, the largest in the Kingdom, and irrigates a large part of the Gharb plain, one of the most productive agricultural regions. « This basin is very important for obvious reasons, and its rapid drying up would be a disaster for the country« , warns Mohamed Bazza.
The expert insists: it’s time to adapt to the new climate, by adapting policies, governance, management and practices, particularly in the water and agricultural sectors. Today, « the situation in Morocco is normal in terms of climate and all that goes with it. These are the effects of climate change, which were foreseen and are now materializing« , Bazza points out. The problem is that people, including those in positions of responsibility, think that we’re talking about ephemeral droughts, as in the past« . A blindness that could cost the nation dearly.
Written in French by Ghita Ismaili; edited in English by AngloMedia Group
Thanks to Storm Jana, Morocco has been recording exceptional rainfall since March 6, against a backdrop of seven successive years of drought. While these rains and snowfalls are beneficial, particularly for crops, will they be enough to reverse the trend… pic.twitter.com/cBIwcfkn8k-
TelQuel (@TelQuelOfficiel) March 12, 2025
