September marks the start of the budget season. In Rabat, attention is turning to the 2026 finance bill, a new balancing act between social reforms, the pressure of major projects, and budgetary discipline. The expansion of social protection and the modernization of infrastructure in preparation for CAN 2025 and the 2030 World Cup are driving up the bill.

In this context, the question of debt returns to the forefront. But beyond its record level lies a crucial issue: who really holds this debt, and therefore a share of the country’s financial levers?

Morocco’s public debt is not limited to that of the Treasury: it covers a much broader scope. In addition to the usual bonds and securities issued on the domestic market, there are external loans, as well as debts contracted — with a state guarantee — by local authorities and major public institutions.

According to the latest detailed figures from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, at the end of 2023, the total outstanding debt reached 1.259 trillion dirhams, or more than 80% of GDP. Public enterprises account for a significant share. OCP, ONCF, ONEE, ADM, and Masen alone represent more than 76% of the loans contracted by public enterprises, backed by massive investment programs.

The weight of domestic debt

Moroccan debt is above all domestic. Nearly 60% of the outstanding amount, or more than 760 billion dirhams, is borrowed on the domestic market. Banks, insurance companies, and pension funds are the main holders, massively absorbing the bonds and securities regularly issued by the Treasury. For these institutions, public debt is a safe haven, a secure investment in a financial environment that is often volatile.

This national preference has the advantage of limiting the Kingdom’s exposure to external shocks. But it also concentrates risks: a considerable share of national savings — those of banks, insurance companies, and pension funds — remains tied up in financing the state, to the detriment of private productive investment. In other words, while external debt makes the country dependent on foreign lenders, domestic debt traps the financial system in a form of mutual dependence with the Treasury.

External dependence under control

While Moroccan debt is primarily domestic, it also relies heavily on external financing. At the end of 2024, public external debt reached 466 billion dirhams, or about 30% of GDP. More than half is held by major international institutions — the World Bank, the African Development Bank, or the European Investment Bank. Next come partner states, followed by international private investors through Treasury bond issues. In detail, the World Bank holds the top position, with more than 10 billion dollars, according to the latest figures from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, committed to programs ranging from social protection to energy transition and education.

The African Development Bank follows with nearly 5 billion dollars, devoted mainly to employment and infrastructure. The European Investment Bank, with about 2.8 billion euros, stands out as a key partner for green and innovation projects. As for the IMF, it remains more discreet, but supports the Kingdom through its Resilience and Sustainability Facility, amounting to around 1.2 billion dollars.

On the bilateral front, four countries account for the bulk of the outstanding debt (83%). France leads by a wide margin, with 40.9% of bilateral debt, or more than 3.5 billion dollars. It is followed by Germany, which holds 26.3%, the equivalent of 2.4 billion dollars. Japan ranks third with 11.9%. Finally, Saudi Arabia rounds out the quartet with 4.8%.

The role of markets

Moreover, Morocco increasingly relies on international markets. In March 2025, the Treasury raised 2 billion euros through a two-tranche bond issue, oversubscribed more than three times by investors. This success confirms the continued confidence in Morocco’s sovereign rating, despite a volatile global financial environment.

Foreign private investors now hold nearly 28% of external debt, or more than 12 billion dollars: the Treasury is seeking to diversify its sources of financing. But this openness to international markets also exposes the Kingdom, due to sensitivity to global interest rate fluctuations and investors’ appetite for risk.

The challenge, therefore, is to preserve market and lender confidence at all costs, otherwise the mechanism could seize up abruptly. That confidence remains fragile: a budgetary slip, an external shock, or a slowdown in growth would be enough to shake it. The balance is thus precarious. Debt does not hinder the country’s economic trajectory, but it now conditions its credibility.