The professionals have had no time to catch their breath. The bad weather at the start of the year had barely cleared the docks when the war in the Middle East came along to complicate the logistical equation. Ships now sail around Africa by way of the Cape of Good Hope: an extra fifteen days of transit and a bill that the professionals are reading line by line.
On the Chinese routes, which account for the bulk of Morocco’s industrial supplies, the increase is real but contained. According to data obtained from the professionals, a 20-foot container from Shanghai rose from 2,500 to 3,800 dollars between January and the end of March 2026, and a 40-foot container from 3,600 to 4,700 dollars. On the European routes, the impact remains marginal: from Le Havre or Hamburg, increases do not exceed 250 dollars per container. « The increase we are experiencing today is linked more to the price of diesel than to international logistics, which has mainly caused delays and delivery disruptions », notes Rachid Tahri, secretary general of the Federation of Transport and Logistics.
Where the numbers turn brutal is on the Gulf routes. From the port of Jebel Ali, the regional redistribution hub, the 40-foot container has surged from 3,500 to 10,900 dollars in three months. The cause: a war surcharge, a premium that shipping companies charge to cover the additional cost of their insurance. To this is added a 20% increase in container pickup and delivery fees within Moroccan territory.
Europe changing engines
And the timing makes nothing easier. Europe, which accounts for about 80% of Moroccan automotive sales, is shifting. Internal combustion engines, which still made up 45.2% of the European market in 2024, fell to 35.5% in 2025 according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), ten points lost in a year. Gasoline declined by 18.7%, diesel by 24.2%. In December 2025, for the first time, electric vehicle registrations exceeded those of gasoline cars in the European Union.
This shift is not solely a matter of the market: the European Union has set the cutoff for sales of new internal combustion vehicles for 2035, a regulatory deadline that compels the entire value chain, Moroccan suppliers included, to speed up their conversion.
Kenitra and Tangier on the front line
The problem: Renault Tangier and Stellantis Kenitra remain heavily anchored in internal combustion, producing Dacia Sanderos, Dacia Joggers, and Peugeot 208s. With a threefold pressure on their order books: the shift to electric and hybrid, European purchasing power eroded by rising fuel prices, and the breakthrough of Chinese manufacturers with electrified models at competitive prices.
In January 2026, Chinese brands already accounted for 7.4% of the European market, according to Dataforce, compared to 4% a year earlier. BYD saw its sales jump by 227% in Europe in 2025. As a result, the hesitations of the end buyer translate directly into the volumes ordered from Moroccan factories. « Costs are rising on the supply side and demand is weakening in certain segments, but others are holding up, particularly those that have already begun the shift toward electrification », qualifies Adil Zaidi, president of the Moroccan Automotive Federation.
Moroccan exports bear the mark of this. After a drop of 7.8% in the first quarter of 2025, the sector ended the year with a decline of 2% to 154.5 billion dirhams, the first decrease after years of records. Automotive construction suffered the most with a downturn of 13.6%, while wiring held up with an increase of 7.7%. The rebound at the start of 2026, with more than 26 billion dirhams exported by the end of February, up by 10.3%, brings some color back to the picture, but no one is celebrating yet.
The fracture from below
The real fracture is inside the chain. The tier 1 suppliers — Yazaki, Lear Corporation, Valeo, Sumitomo, Forvia — have the size and diversification needed to weather the turbulence. Multi-year contracts, consolidated balance sheets, engineers capable of pivoting to electric: their advantages are structural. Wiring — which equips both internal combustion and electric vehicles — ensures them structural continuity. Their exports bear witness to this: +14.8% by the end of February 2026.
Local SMEs do not have this safety net. Subsidiaries of Moroccan groups that supply automakers with braking parts, soundproofing foams, or flat steel find themselves in a delicate position: these components are intimately tied to internal combustion, and their place in the electric car is reduced, if not nonexistent. When Renault or Stellantis slow down, these subsidiaries slow down. And between rising freight costs, more expensive raw materials, and the investments required by the shift to electric, cash flows are under pressure. « If costs continue to climb, working capital requirements are going to explode », confides an automotive subcontractor. « Lead times are lengthening, materials cost more, the inventories to be financed are growing, and investment is needed to ensure the move upmarket and meet the new requirements of the contracting parties », notes Adil Zaidi.
A window of opportunity
While internal combustion is in retreat, investments in electric are accelerating. Renault is preparing a hybrid Sandero for late 2026. Stellantis inaugurated the extension of Kenitra in July 2025, bringing its capacity to 535,000 vehicles with hybrid and electric lines. « The Moroccan platform has taken on a new dimension. Today we are integrating into an ecosystem in less than six months whereas it used to take years. The technicians have the codes, the certifications are there », Zaidi reassures. The potential is real. But it presupposes swift decisions, he insists.
But this platform is largely being built on foreign players. Local SMEs, for their part, are still manufacturing components for internal combustion, and their conversion can no longer wait. « Decisions need to be taken now, not when the accident is upon us. We need to sit down, listen to the professionals, put in place suitable financing tools. We must not wait for the crisis, we must prevent it », warns the president of the Automotive Federation.
Written in French by Safae Hadri, edited in English by Eric Nielson
