Just over a month after the conclusion of the 2024 General Population and Housing Census (RGPH 2024), the High Commission for Planning (HCP) has released its initial findings. According to the results, the Kingdom’s legal population reached 36,828,330 inhabitants as of September 1, 2024, including 36,680,178 Moroccans and 148,152 foreigners. Compared to the 2014 census, the population increased by 2,980,088 inhabitants, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 0.85% over the period.
Although Morocco’s population has more than tripled since 1960, the rate of demographic growth has been steadily declining. The growth rate dropped from an average of 2.6% between 1960 and 1982, to 1.25% between 2004 and 2014, and then to 0.85% between 2014 and 2024.
Social transformation
Several factors explain this downward trend, starting with the decline in fertility rates, now at 2.3 children per woman, close to the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Another significant factor is the emigration of Moroccans abroad, according to Abdessalam Fazouane, a demographer and former director of the National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (INSEA), speaking to TelQuel.
« In addition to the decline in birth rates, there is also significant emigration, which annually reduces the local population by approximately 0.25%. Unlike European or North American countries, this loss is not offset by incoming immigration, which remains largely transitory. As a result, the number of foreign residents in Morocco remains relatively low, » he explains.
Added to this is the increase in life expectancy in Morocco, now exceeding 76 years according to the latest HCP statistics, placing the country in a phase of « demographic transition. » This shift has been strongly influenced by family planning policies introduced in the 1960s after the end of the protectorate.
« This is a natural transition observed in various countries worldwide due to changing values and socio-economic development. However, this transition is different from that of Western countries, where it was more gradual and slower, shaped by the evolution of local cultural values. In Morocco, it was largely the result of measures imported during the protectorate period, which accelerated the process, » the demographer explains.
A missed opportunity?
The Kingdom is nearing the end of its « demographic dividend, » a phase expected to last for another two to three decades. Morocco must fully leverage this period before entering a new phase of « demographic decline, » characterized by a negative growth rate and an inversion of the age pyramid.
“Unfortunately, Morocco has not sufficiently capitalized on its period of demographic transition”
« During the demographic transition, there is a period when the working-age population, aged 15 to 64, increases and becomes the largest group, offering countries an economic advantage and a significant workforce to leverage. Unfortunately, Morocco has not taken full advantage of this period. We face a high unemployment rate, and much of the working-age population is being left behind, which represents a significant missed opportunity for economic growth, » laments Abdessalam Fazouane.
In theory, when the number of active workers exceeds that of dependents, a country benefits from an abundant labor force that can drive growth. However, for this demographic dividend to result in real economic growth, it must be maximized through adequate policies in employment, training, and economic inclusion—an area Morocco has neglected, according to the demographer.
A similar observation is made by Ahmed Azirar, economist and research director at the Moroccan Institute of Strategic Intelligence (IMIS), who believes that Morocco can still capitalize on the final third of its demographic dividend if the necessary investments are made to create jobs and generate growth. « While demographics alone are no longer the sole economic driver for countries, they remain important. The current phase is leading the country into the final third of the demographic dividend, but we are still in it: we need to make better use of it before it’s too late, » he emphasizes.
Reversing the trend
“The aging population is set to increase, raising specific needs for healthcare and infrastructure tailored to the elderly”
The economist also emphasizes the need to anticipate the next phase, that of demographic decline. Necessary measures must be taken to regulate the population and maintain balance within the age pyramid, ensuring the sustainability of pension and social security systems. Abdessalam Fazouane echoes this sentiment: “In the coming decades, the aging population will increase, leading to specific needs for healthcare and infrastructure adapted to the elderly. In terms of education, the school-age population is also expected to stagnate, requiring more qualitative than quantitative infrastructure.”
For the demographer, policies to support birth rates should be implemented to reverse the trend. Otherwise, Morocco will need to rely on migration in the coming decades to compensate for demographic decline and attract talent capable of driving the country’s economic development.
Two potential paths emerge for Morocco: collaboration with its neighbors in Sub-Saharan Africa or engaging the Moroccan diaspora through a remigration policy. “We’re speaking long-term, but if we continue along certain models of negative population growth, such as those seen in Germany or Austria, it will mean replacing the population through migration, bringing in individuals from abroad. We’re not there yet, but it will become necessary if no policies are implemented to reverse the trend,” he warns.
Written in French by Safae Hadri, edited in English by Eric Nielson
