Between 2024 and 2030, Morocco is undertaking a public investment effort unprecedented in its modern history: 190 billion dirhams allocated to connectivity and tourism infrastructure, equivalent to 11.9% of its GDP in 2024. High-speed rail lines (HSR), airports, roads, stadiums, urban development: the timeline is driven by the 2030 World Cup deadline, and the project cannot afford any delays. It is this program that three economists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez—scrutinized in a working paper published in April 2026.
Their verdict is nuanced but uncompromising. Public investment will indeed stimulate long-term growth, with real GDP potentially reaching about 3% higher than it would have been without this program. But the benefits are neither free nor guaranteed: they depend, for the most part, on the quality of execution. Two variables, in particular, threaten to undermine the baseline scenario: potential cost overruns and import leakage.
The figures are striking. According to the general equilibrium model used by the IMF, 60% of investment spending is expected to be absorbed by imports, with materials and equipment for high-speed rail lines and airports leading the way. In other words, only 40 cents of every dirham spent will directly fuel domestic production. The multiplier effect, already modest in a middle-income country, is thus all the more limited. The current account deficit will widen throughout the construction phase, before gradually narrowing after 2030, as exports benefit from the resulting gains in competitiveness.
Efficiency: The decisive factor
What the IMF report highlights with particular clarity is the central role of the efficiency of public spending. It is not how much is spent, but how each dirham is spent. The Fund’s economists have modeled five distinct scenarios. In the baseline scenario, consolidated public debt rises by 7 to 8 percentage points of GDP by 2030, then gradually declines thanks to growth and revenues from tolls and user fees.
If investment efficiency increases by 20% compared to this baseline scenario, long-term GDP is between 3.5% and 4% higher than in that scenario, with a comparable debt level. Conversely, 20% lower efficiency caps gains at 2% to 2.5%, for a debt level of the same order. The lesson is clear: spending more is not enough if spending governance is flawed.
The most concerning scenario involves cost overruns. The IMF models a 30% deviation from initial estimates: debt increases by an additional 2 to 3 percentage points of GDP compared to the baseline scenario, without any improvement in growth outcomes. Yet the international data cited in the report are unequivocal: in a sample of 258 transportation projects, nine out of ten exceeded their initial budget, with average cost overruns of 20% for roads, 34% for bridges and tunnels, and 45% for rail.
PPPs on the front lines
The financing structure also merits attention. It is the local authorities that bear the bulk of the burden: 7.4% of GDP, or more than half of the total. Local governments account for 3.2%, while the central government accounts for only 1.4%. This distribution means that the bulk of the budgetary burden will not appear in central government debt statistics, but rather in those of the broader public sector. The IMF explicitly states that monitoring and publishing the debt of local governments and regions is becoming a transparency requirement, not an option.
This arrangement also raises the issue of contingent liabilities which are potential debts that do not appear in public accounts until they materialize. The model assumes that after 2030, user fees will cover debt service and the maintenance costs of the built infrastructure. If this is not the case, unforeseen fiscal pressures—which public accounts do not currently anticipate—could weigh on the state budget.
A historically proven ROI
Beyond the risks, the IMF report grounds its forward-looking analysis in solid empirical evidence. Drawing on data covering 95 countries between 1990 and 2023, the authors establish that improvements in the quantity and quality of infrastructure in Morocco since 2005 have contributed to approximately one-fifth of national productivity growth, a ratio higher than the average for countries in the MENA region and comparable middle-income economies.
The most promising sectors have been, in order, telecommunications and ports. Tangier Med illustrates this trend: since the launch of Terminal 1 in 2007 and Terminal 2 in 2019, the port has become the leading port in Africa and the Mediterranean in terms of container capacity.
This track record bodes well for the future, but it does not guarantee it. The quality of the electrical infrastructure remains a blind spot: while generation capacity has certainly increased, line losses in the transmission and distribution network have not followed the same trend. Road density remains low. As for 5G, it did not become operational until the end of 2025, while the quality of telecommunications still lags behind comparable countries, according to data compiled by the IMF. It is precisely these shortcomings that make the 2024–2030 program necessary. It is also what makes the quality of its implementation non-negotiable.
Written in French by Younes Saoury; Edited in English by AngloMedia Group.
