In recent weeks, the Casablanca Stock Exchange’s main index, the MASI, has continued to break records. On Monday, January 6, it closed at an all-time high of 15,559 points. A slight correction followed on Tuesday, January 7, with the index closing at 15,529 points and a market capitalization exceeding 787 billion dirhams. By the close of Wednesday, January 8, the MASI had rebounded to a new peak of 15,723 points, pushing market capitalization beyond 797 billion dirhams.
Trading volumes reached 831.28 million dirhams, mainly conducted on the central equity market, with CMGP Group (102.58 billion dirhams), Addoha (84.16 billion dirhams), and Akdital (62.15 billion dirhams) dominating transactions.
The Casablanca market continues its upward trend, which began last year, marked by a peak of 14,986 points on November 20, a level not seen since 2008. The year 2024 ended with a 22.16% increase in the MASI, closing at 14,773 points on December 31.
A welcome influx of liquidity
However, the optimism among investors at the start of the year is primarily driven by expectations of a new influx of liquidity into the market, following the conclusion of the tax amnesty program on December 31. This initiative helped absorb a significant portion of cash circulating in the informal economy, redirecting it into the banking system.
While no official figures have yet been released regarding the total amounts collected, industry sources indicate that over 100 billion dirhams in undeclared assets were regularized, including more than 60 billion dirhams in cash.
« The tax amnesty initiative has played a significant role in the current stock market momentum. Investors expect a large portion of the liquidity injected into the banking system to flow into the stock market, especially given the highly favorable conditions for equity investments since last year, » explains Tariq Obaid, Deputy Managing Director of the fund management company AD Capital, in an interview with TelQuel.
A similar perspective is shared by Farid Mezouar, Director of FL Markets and a stock market specialist, who believes that the newly injected funds not only signal a positive return of investments to the stock market but also represent a substantial inflow of deposits for banks. This liquidity provides banks with the opportunity to clean up their year-end balance sheets while potentially improving their profit margins. Investors are therefore anticipating increased profits across Casablanca’s banks, with positive annual results expected to be announced in March 2025.
The health of the banking sector directly influences the performance of the Casablanca Stock Exchange, as the banking industry alone accounts for more than 34% of market capitalization. It is followed by the construction sector (13.24%), telecommunications (9.59%), and transportation services (5.61%).
Promising prospects
Other factors also explain the positive market momentum since the start of the year, particularly the anticipation of further interest rate declines in the coming months. This follows Bank Al-Maghrib’s recent cut of its key interest rate to 2.5% in December and global expectations of monetary easing amid declining inflation.
“The announcement of Morocco hosting the World Cup was the key catalyst for the stock market’s momentum in 2024”
After peaks in 2022 and 2023, the average inflation rate is expected to stabilize around 1% in 2024, according to Bank Al-Maghrib. Over the next two years, inflation is projected to remain moderate, with the central bank forecasting 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. The market is also benefiting from promising economic growth prospects and a resurgence in investments, driven by the announcement of Morocco’s joint hosting of the 2030 FIFA World Cup alongside its Iberian neighbors.
« The announcement of the World Cup hosting was the key catalyst for the stock market’s momentum in 2024, and its impact continues this year. Its effect is even more amplified on the stock index compared to the overall economy, as the most directly impacted sectors are heavily represented in the MASI. The banking sector accounts for 35% of the MASI, while it represents only 5-6% of the national economy. Similarly, cement companies and construction firms make up over 50% of the MASI, compared to a much smaller share in the broader economy, » emphasizes Tariq Obaid.
The five glorious years
Regarding MASI’s projections for 2025, the two experts interviewed by TelQuel agree on the continuation of strong momentum in the coming months. They believe that the combination of solid fundamentals and positive economic growth prospects should support the index’s performance, keeping it in positive territory and potentially reaching new record highs.
“I believe we are experiencing an exceptional period that is boosting investor confidence and encouraging them to enter the stock market”
« The last time the MASI peaked was in 2008, around 15,000 points. Morocco’s economy today is far more robust than it was back then. The index could continue rising to reach another historic high. I believe we are experiencing an exceptional period that is boosting investor confidence and encouraging them to enter the stock market. We could be witnessing the ‘Five Glorious Years’ leading up to 2030, » emphasizes Tariq Obaid, Deputy Managing Director of AD Capital.
For the months ahead, investment managers recommend focusing on sectors directly tied to the large-scale investment projects announced as part of the preparations for hosting the 2030 World Cup. This includes the construction sector, driven by the massive infrastructure projects required for the event.
The banking sector is also considered « essential, » as the increasing need for financing to support the national investment effort is expected to stimulate banking activity and improve financial institution performance.
Tariq Obaid also suggests that other sectors could benefit, such as tourism, beverage distribution, and telecommunications, particularly with preparations for the rollout of 5G ahead of the World Cup—factors likely to attract significant investor interest.
Written in French by Safae Hadri, edited in English by Eric Nielson
